The Air Freight Squeeze: Preparing for the 15% Surge in High‑Value, Time‑Critical Cargo

Air Freight Under Pressure

Air freight has always been the lifeline of global supply chains. It moves the world’s most critical cargo - from automotive prototypes to life‑saving medicines.

In 2025, demand for air cargo is expected to rise by up to 15%, according to Transport Intelligence, driven by a mix of policy changes, tariff adjustments, and the need for faster delivery of high‑value goods.

This growth offers opportunities, but it also creates challenges: limited capacity, rising costs, and the need for faster procurement decisions.

What’s Driving the Surge?

• Policy Shifts: The July 2025 U.S.-EU trade framework changed tariff structures, making air freight a strategic choice for time‑critical shipments that can’t be delayed by slower modes or high‑tariff lanes.

• High‑Value Cargo Growth: Industries like pharmaceuticals, automotive, and electronics rely increasingly on air freight to move high‑value components and products faster and more securely.

• Customer Expectations: In a world of compressed lead times, delayed delivery isn’t an option. Air freight provides a way to meet service levels when other modes cannot.

The Risks of Unprepared Procurement

Air freight is not just more expensive - it is highly competitive when capacity tightens.

Procurement teams without clear visibility or agile processes face:

• Premium costs when booking last‑minute air cargo.

• Delays caused by limited carrier availability.

• Lost opportunities to secure capacity on favorable terms.

A 2024 IATA report noted that companies booking air freight reactively can pay 20-30% more than those with pre‑negotiated options or hybrid procurement strategies.

How Hybrid Freight Supports Air Freight Strategies

• Pre‑Negotiated Air Capacity: On‑demand agreements for air lanes give organizations flexibility without premium surcharges.

• Dynamic Spot Bidding: Access to spot bidding lets procurement teams secure competitive rates quickly for urgent shipments.

• Contracted Air Freight: Long‑term agreements ensure baseline capacity for predictable high‑volume flows.

When combined, these strategies create a layered air freight approach that reduces cost volatility and improves reliability.

Industry Examples of Air Freight Dependence

• Automotive: Compressed product development cycles (from 60 months to 36 months over the last decade) require fast shipment of prototypes and components to global plants.

• Pharmaceuticals: Critical shipments like vaccines and biologics rely on air cargo to maintain cold chain integrity and lead times.

• High‑Tech Manufacturing: Semiconductors and electronics need fast, secure transport to keep up with product launch timelines.

What Procurement Leaders Should Do Now

1. Forecast Demand for Air Freight: Anticipate needs based on product cycles and policy changes.

2. Negotiate Pre‑Agreed Air Options: Build air freight flexibility into broader procurement strategies.

3. Integrate Spot Tools: Use digital platforms to access real‑time bidding for urgent shipments.

4. Develop Cross‑Modal Plans: Use hybrid freight strategies to balance air with sea, road, and rail for cost efficiency.

   
   

The Bottom Line

Air freight demand is rising, but with preparation, it can be an advantage - not a risk.

Hybrid freight strategies give procurement leaders the visibility, flexibility, and control to secure capacity, manage costs, and deliver high‑value goods on time.

The companies that invest now in smarter, layered air freight strategies will be the ones who turn complexity into opportunity and speed into a competitive edge.